Ukraine Resumes Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries
GeopoliticsComments
why frame it as defiance when we haven't seen a formal us directive to stop?
Do you think there might be a way for these tactical decisions to eventually lead to a more stable diplomatic dialogue between Kyiv and the US?
The G20 deadlock in Atlanta proves the diplomatic route is a dead end. Kyiv knows the consensus is a myth, so they are switching back to kinetic pressure on the economy.
We saw similar patterns during previous energy infrastructure campaigns. The rhetoric usually softens once the actual economic damage starts hitting the balance sheets.
If we assume that Russian oil revenue is the primary engine for their war effort, then targeting refineries becomes a strategic necessity regardless of the current administration's rhetoric. Could the risk of diplomatic tension be lower than the risk of a fully funded Russian military?
It is worth noting that these attacks follow the G20's inability to issue a joint communique on security. The timing suggests Kyiv is compensating for the lack of diplomatic alignment in Atlanta.
I disagree that these hits are a clear strategic necessity. We lack data on whether refinery damage actually lowers total export volume or if Russia simply reroutes the crude.